Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Time-dependent transport through molecular junctions.

We investigate transport properties of molecular junctions under two types of bias--a short time pulse or an ac bias--by combining a solution for Green's functions in the time domain with electronic structure information coming from ab initio density functional calculations. We find that the short time response depends on lead structure, bias voltage, and barrier heights both at the molecule-lead contacts and within molecules. Under a low frequency ac bias, the electron flow either tracks or leads the bias signal (resistive or capacitive response) depending on whether the junction is perfectly conducting or not. For high frequency, the current lags the bias signal due to the kinetic inductance. The transition frequency is an intrinsic property of the junctions.

Reformulating time-dependent density functional theory with non-orthogonal localized molecular orbitals.

Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) has broad application in the study of electronic response, excitation and transport. To extend such application to large and complex systems, we develop a reformulation of TDDFT equations in terms of non-orthogonal localized molecular orbitals (NOLMOs). NOLMO is the most localized representation of electronic degrees of freedom and has been used in ground state calculations. In atomic orbital (AO) representation, the sparsity of NOLMO is transferred to the coefficient matrix of molecular orbitals (MOs). Its novel use in TDDFT here leads to a very simple form of time propagation equations which can be solved with linear-scaling effort. We have tested the method for several long-chain saturated and conjugated molecular systems within the self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding method (SCC-DFTB) and demonstrated its accuracy. This opens up pathways for TDDFT applications to large bio- and nano-systems.

Neuronal correlates of visual time perception at brief timescales.

Successful interaction with the world depends on accurate perception of the timing of external events. Neurons at early stages of the primate visual system represent time-varying stimuli with high precision. However, it is unknown whether this temporal fidelity is maintained in the prefrontal cortex, where changes in neuronal activity generally correlate with changes in perception. One reason to suspect that it is not maintained is that humans experience surprisingly large fluctuations in the perception of time. To investigate the neuronal correlates of time perception, we recorded from neurons in the prefrontal cortex and midbrain of monkeys performing a temporal-discrimination task. Visual time intervals were presented at a timescale relevant to natural behavior (<500 ms). At this brief timescale, neuronal adaptation--time-dependent changes in the size of successive responses--occurs. We found that visual activity fluctuated with timing judgments in the prefrontal cortex but not in comparable midbrain areas. Surprisingly, only response strength, not timing, predicted task performance. Intervals perceived as longer were associated with larger visual responses and shorter intervals with smaller responses, matching the dynamics of adaptation. These results suggest that the magnitude of prefrontal activity may be read out to provide temporal information that contributes to judging the passage of time.

Efficient construction of nonorthogonal localized molecular orbitals in large systems.

Localized molecular orbitals (LMOs) are much more compact representations of electronic degrees of freedom than canonical molecular orbitals (CMOs). The most compact representation is provided by nonorthogonal localized molecular orbitals (NOLMOs), which are linearly independent but are not orthogonal. Both LMOs and NOLMOs are thus useful for linear-scaling calculations of electronic structures for large systems. Recently, NOLMOs have been successfully applied to linear-scaling calculations with density functional theory (DFT) and to reformulating time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) for calculations of excited states and spectroscopy. However, a challenge remains as NOLMO construction from CMOs is still inefficient for large systems. In this work, we develop an efficient method to accelerate the NOLMO construction by using predefined centroids of the NOLMO and thereby removing the nonlinear equality constraints in the original method ( J. Chem. Phys. 2004 , 120 , 9458 and J. Chem. Phys. 2000 , 112 , 4 ). Thus, NOLMO construction becomes an unconstrained optimization. Its efficiency is demonstrated for the selected saturated and conjugated molecules. Our method for fast NOLMO construction should lead to efficient DFT and NOLMO-TDDFT applications to large systems.

Phase transfer catalysts drive diverse organic solvent solubility of single-walled carbon nanotubes helically wrapped by ionic, semiconducting polymers.

Use of phase transfer catalysts such as 18-crown-6 enables ionic, linear conjugated poly[2,6-{1,5-bis(3-propoxysulfonicacidsodiumsalt)}naphthylene]ethynylene (PNES) to efficiently disperse single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) in multiple organic solvents under standard ultrasonication methods. Steady-state electronic absorption spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) reveal that these SWNT suspensions are composed almost exclusively of individualized tubes. High-resolution TEM and AFM data show that the interaction of PNES with SWNTs in both protic and aprotic organic solvents provides a self-assembled superstructure in which a PNES monolayer helically wraps the nanotube surface with periodic and constant morphology (observed helical pitch length = 10 ± 2 nm); time-dependent examination of these suspensions indicates that these structures persist in solution over periods that span at least several months. Pump-probe transient absorption spectroscopy reveals that the excited state lifetimes and exciton binding energies of these well-defined nanotube-semiconducting polymer hybrid structures remain unchanged relative to analogous benchmark data acquired previously for standard sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS)-SWNT suspensions, regardless of solvent. These results demonstrate that the use of phase transfer catalysts with ionic semiconducting polymers that helically wrap SWNTs provide well-defined structures that solubulize SWNTs in a wide range of organic solvents while preserving critical nanotube semiconducting and conducting properties.

The role of tectonic uplift, climate, and vegetation in the long-term terrestrial phosphorous cycle

Phosphorus (P) is a crucial element for life and therefore for maintaining ecosystem productivity. Its local availability to the terrestrial biosphere results from the interaction between climate, tectonic uplift, atmospheric transport, and biotic cycling. Here we present a mathematical model that describes the terrestrial P-cycle in a simple but comprehensive way. The resulting dynamical system can be solved analytically for steady-state conditions, allowing us to test the sensitivity of the P-availability to the key parameters and processes. Given constant inputs, we find that humid ecosystems exhibit lower P availability due to higher runoff and losses, and that tectonic uplift is a fundamental constraint. In particular, we find that in humid ecosystems the biotic cycling seem essential to maintain long-term P-availability. The time-dependent P dynamics for the Franz Josef and Hawaii chronosequences show how tectonic uplift is an important constraint on ecosystem productivity, while hydroclimatic conditions control the P-losses and speed towards steady-state. The model also helps describe how, with limited uplift and atmospheric input, as in the case of the Amazon Basin, ecosystems must rely on mechanisms that enhance P-availability and retention. Our novel model has a limited number of parameters and can be easily integrated into global climate models to provide a representation of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to global change. © 2010 Author(s).

Postoperative statin use and risk of biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of statin use after radical prostatectomy (RP) on biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with prostate cancer who never received statins before RP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1146 RP patients within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine differences in risk of BCR between post-RP statin users vs nonusers. To account for varying start dates and duration of statin use during follow-up, post-RP statin use was treated as a time-dependent variable. In a secondary analysis, models were stratified by race to examine the association of post-RP statin use with BCR among black and non-black men. RESULTS: After adjusting for clinical and pathological characteristics, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with 36% reduced risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87; P = 0.004). Post-RP statin use remained associated with reduced risk of BCR after adjusting for preoperative serum cholesterol levels. In secondary analysis, after stratification by race, this protective association was significant in non-black (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32-0.75; P = 0.001) but not black men (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.53-1.28; P = 0.384). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort of men undergoing RP, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of BCR. Whether the association between post-RP statin use and BCR differs by race requires further study. Given these findings, coupled with other studies suggesting that statins may reduce risk of advanced prostate cancer, randomised controlled trials are warranted to formally test the hypothesis that statins slow prostate cancer progression.